Arnold’s Ramblings

Hi,

So far, there has not been as much enthusiasm as I had expected regarding my initial money savings suggestions. I will continue until the lack of response becomes deafening.
From conversations I have had with many of you, it seems as though buying (in quantity) at Costco, BJ’s, and Sam’s Club warehouse stores and or buying on sale BOGOs (buy one get one free) is not something that many of us do. Well, we need to start finding whatever it is that we purchase regularly (or constantly; whichever is appropriate) and load up on it when there is an especially attractive sale. Many of the supermarkets weekly offer different products on BOGO. This is the time that you need to buy; and buy a three or six month supply. If you do this with as many products as possible, ultimately you will save maybe 20% or more of your food budget.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average made new highs seven days in a row last week. The media is heralding this as the “proof” that the economy is surging and that we are in the best of times. Everything is great; business is at its highest point, and on and on and on. Of course, when everything is wonderful, there are no “real” problems. And clearly, the low employment participation rate, high unemployment rate, sluggish growth, relatively high bankruptcy rate for business and personal all clearly suggest otherwise. But, let us not allow facts to get in the way.

Yields on 10 year Treasuries have risen again to as high as 2.06% and beyond, suggesting that we may be looking at a rise in inflation. If we experience either a rise in inflation or a perceived rise in inflation, then yields on 10 year and 30 year Treasuries could soar to 4% or more on the 10 year Treasury bond and 7% or more on the 30 year Treasury bond. This would also significantly damper the Federal Reserve QE’s.

The DJIA which has made several consecutive new highs should correct by about 10% and then rise to new news around 15200 on the Dow before the end of the third quarter 2013.
Gold should still rise to at least $2000 the ounce, possibly much more due to what appears to be an inflation scare.
Oil does not appear as though it will rise to $125 the barrel, but that should be the top, if we get that far.
Interest rates appear to be looking higher on the 10 year and 30 year Treasuries.
The dollar should still be under pressure for now.
Real estate pricing is still rising at insane levels in the most depressed markets and a new bigger bubble appears to be forming.
The economy still looks at best up 1%, contrary to the media hype.

Arnold

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