Arnold’s Ramblings

Hi,

Congressperson Nancy Pelosi (former Speaker of the House) is now calling for an additional $1 trillion of tax increases in order to reduce the deficit. Let me see - first, one can not reduce a deficit if it continues to rise, so what Ms. Pelosi should be saying is that this amount will reduce the rise of the deficit. Secondly, the Democrats continue to refuse to reduce ANY spending except for Defense spending. Unless and until Federal borrowing is impossible, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans will even pretend to be fiscally responsible. But, you ask, that will never happen; and if it does the Federal Reserve will buy all of the debt instead of now the Fed owns about 10% of the debt. We will have to see.

As I usually do, I read Arnold’s Ramblings draft to someone before being issued and I was corrected on the above paragraph. It seems that the President and the Democrats have significantly reduced spending already on interest rates on the National Debt and also reduced spending on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. And when those are counted in that is at least $2 trillion. So, that means that taxes will need to rise by at least $2 trillion more before there are any further spending cuts. And then there are all of the savings from Obamacare as it is called. I reminded my friend that there have been NO savings from Obamacare: the $2500 annual savings in premiums are now more than an additional $3000 a year in premiums. The 28% savings, by reducing doctors fees has been reversed each year, and there have in fact, as of yet, been no savings; only increased costs.

He then explained to me that this what he had heard on MSNBC. I patiently explained to him that regardless of where he heard it, he needed to independently verify any news information he heard. As it turns out, he heard it on one of the “opinion” programs. All of the news channels run “opinion” programming. Many viewers mistake the opinions for facts. Similarly, in many national surveys, when asked what news anchor is the most trusted, the response is Jon Stewart. Mr. Stewart is not in any way a newscaster. Mr. Stewart is (or is supposed to be) a comedian! So, any information that we believe to be news (fact) needs to be independently verified. If you do independently verify information, the source must be a credible source. Not a fly-by-night website or another opinion site.

The DJIA should still reach a new nominal new high before April, 2013.
Gold should also reach new highs of $2000 before May, 2013.
Interest rates are still in a trading range.
Oil could still hit $125 a barrel before the end of the second quarter.
The dollar is still treading water, and should rise later in 2013.
Real estate pricing is still rising in most markets.
The economy is still flat or up slightly.

Arnold

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