Arnold’s Ramblings

Hi,

NOTE: This is not for children to read and to hear.

arnold is sick and tired of waking up every morning sick and tired! For the past several weeks arnold has spent a considerable time researching and studying the great achievements of the Progressive movement in the United States. First, Socialism and Communism have failed in EVERY country in the world (except the United States and that is because socialism has not been tried in the U.S.). Even Cuba is turning capitalistic. The Chinese, while still “Communist” are the world’s leading capitalists. And by definition one can not be a communist and a capitalist. The “Occupy Wall Street” movement which is funded by the major national unions and several (misguided) 1%ers is anti-capitalism. The Democrat party is essentially for financial equality or income and asset redistribution; which makes them anti-capitalism.

The Progressives (and the unions et al) favor the socialist model, yet no where in the world has socialism succeeded. Now when arnold was much younger, he always stated that socialism will never work. Then that was conjecture; now it is fact. While American Progressives know that they are smarter and better than any in the world, some things are just impossible. Making socialism actually work to benefit the “people” is impossible. It just can’t and won’t ever work. There are no exceptions.

The only “system” that has worked for any significant period in history thus far is capitalism. Capitalism has created more wealth and more abundance than any other system ever created. All of the medical breakthroughs, technological breakthroughs; all of the everything has been created from our capitalistic structure. Without capitalism, we have much much much less of everything.

The DJIA looks lower in the short term. Then after the correction is complete the DJIA should rise to 14800 to 15200; then free fall.
Gold should start to rise up to $2000 plus or minus.
Oil looks lower to maybe $80, before we reassess.
The dollar still looks good.
Interest rates are still in a trading range.
Real estate pricing is still lower.
The economy is eking out about a 2% rise for the time being.

Arnold

Disclaimer: (found at http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/homephp/testpage/).

Hi,

As it stands today at year end the Bush tax cuts expire and rates go back up for everyone (who pays taxes); and there is also those pesky mandatory spending cuts that Congress approved as well. A study by the CBO (Congressional Budget Office, the bi-partisan group) that the tax increase alone would reduce GDP by 3.5%; which using last quarter 2.2% increase in GDP; would mean recession. It would appear difficult at this time for Congress to pass an extension to the Bush tax cuts because of the Democrats obsession with increasing the taxes on those earning over $1 million. The taxes projected to be collected by raising the taxes on those currently earning over $1 million dollars is $65 billion over 10 years; while raising the taxes on everyone would generate $600 to $700 billion a year or $6 to $7 trillion over 10 years. While arnold opposes all tax increases; returning tax rates to Clinton era levels would reduce the deficit down to about $400 to $500 billion and with the tax increases; there could be suitable spending cuts; which taken together would bring the budget back into balance. What a novel concept!

Now that France has a Socialist for its new head of state; most likely he will keep his commitment to spend his way into prosperity. It will fail. In France there is no doubt because they do not have control over their own currency; so that borrowing is the only real available avenue for them; and rates will start to soar. Then it will be Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Italy and France.

The DJIA looks to be having correction. Following the correction; we should experience one final up to 14700 to 15200 or so on the Dow.
Gold looks to be bottoming out before it moves up to $2000.
Oil broke below $100; and unless we exceed $100 soon, then we are headed for at least $80.
Interest rates are still in a tight trading range.
The dollar is still doing just fine and should continue to improve.
Real estate pricing is still down in most markets and looks lower especially in those markets which have not experienced large drops.
The economy is moving along at 2% or less.

Arnold

Disclaimer: (found at http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/homephp/testpage/).

Hi,

The election cycle is really getting out of hand and it has not even started officially. The President’s people are obsessed with the Romney dog’s situation. I can’t speak for anyone else, but when I croak, I can think of a lot worse choices than to come back as Mitt Romney’s dog! Both sides are just being silly. Neither side seems to really want to discuss real issues. arnold still would like to see a Presidential race based upon real issues. Then maybe the voters would actually vote based upon what they believe to be the best for the country.

Spain looks as though it is next to default. Sunday’s election in France seems to be going Socialist, with the defeat of Sarkozy. This would be BAD news for France and Europe.

Today is May Day (May 1) and the Occupy people are boycotting every business in the country. We will see how successful the boycott is.

The DJIA looks to be correcting up to about 20% in the near term.
Oil still looks to be rising to $120, then testing the all time high of $147.
Gold looks as though it will rise to $2000 the ounce.
Interest rates are still in a narrow trading range.
The dollar is still looking much higher.
Real estate continues to look lower. We are now at a 15 year low for home ownership.
The economy grew at an official rate of 2.2% in the first quarter; probably revised downward.

Arnold

Disclaimer: (found at http://www.arnoldsramblings.com/homephp/testpage/).