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Sales Data Interesting, Economic Forecasting

By Administrator ~ March 31st, 2015

Hi,

 

Again Michael was supposed to write this week's essay and alas I saw a pig fly overhead. Observing the changes in the economy on a daily; weekly and monthly basis is becoming somewhat interesting. The increase/decrease in sales is becoming a serious problem; the profit for the last quarter was the worst since 2011; and except for a few exceptions, no major corporations are having really significant sales increases. It used to be when sales did not rise at least 12%; the stock took a 10 to 20% drop. Now a sales increase on 2% is considered great results. And this is with a stated inflation rate of 2%. This results are just not good. We are not yet at the point that the economy is falling (obviously) but presumably that is coming within the year (or sooner). Then we will hopefully wash out the excesses of the past 20 years; to start anew and rise again.

 

The DJIA still looks to be going to at least 19000; maybe 20000 before heading lower; much lower.

Gold does not look as though it will reach $1350; but soon gold will start to head lower.

Oil should trade below $40 to the mid$30 price range.

The dollar should continue to rise for another couple of years.

Interest rates have been in a tight trading range and should remain there for now.

Real estate pricing is now at the top (or beyond the top) in virtually every market.

The economy is basically treading water.

 

Arnold

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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