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Post-Midterm Priority Polling, Economic Forecasting

By Administrator ~ November 18th, 2014



Now that the midterm elections are over, I thought it might be informative to take another look at what Americans see as the most important issues facing the country, as reported by Gallup (poll taken November 6 -9, 2014). We are still primarily concerned with economic and financial issues, which rank high collectively at about 41% (encompassing the economy in general - the #1 issue, unemployment, federal budget deficit/federal debt, and poverty/hunger/homelessness). Dissatisfaction with government ranked a close second to the economy, with immigration in third place.


More interesting is the breakdown by party affiliation. Republicans are about twice as concerned about the economy in general as Democrats, 27% to 14%, but both are very dissatisfied with government (21% GOP vs. 19% Dem.). To me, the most surprising statistics are on immigration and unemployment. 10% of Democrats see immigration as a top concern, vs. 16% of Republicans, and 13% of Democrats. say unemployment is their top issue vs. 10% GOP. Gallup suggests these are reasonably close and mimic lower percentages from last month, but Democrats presumably would be more focused on immigration than Republicans, as Democrats (mostly) support President Obama's upcoming "Executive Action" on the topic (via Executive Order). This may indicate Republicans are concerned about what Obama will do, however. On unemployment, the White House and Democrat talking heads tell us the economy is getting better and more jobs are being created, so it is very odd the Democrats are more concerned with unemployment than the GOP. I don't know what that tells us other than possibly that Democrats do not believe the talking points.


As we move into the New Year and new Congress, I hope the Republicans take a good look at this poll and others like it as they craft their legislative agenda. For six years we have had a disconnect I keep harping on between Main Street and Washington, now, finally, maybe we will see the American People getting their concerns addressed in the halls of Congress. I truly hope so!




And now here's arnold with economic forecasting:

The DJIA should have or will be peaking anytime now. Then we should see a major correction into 2016.

Gold looks lower to $1000; then maybe $750.

Oil looks lower to $60, then maybe $40.

The dollar is continuing to rally and looks much higher.

Interest rates continue to stay low, very low.

Real estate pricing appears to have peaked or peaking in virtually every market.

The economy continues to tread water.





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