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Some Arnold’s Ramblings Insight, Economic Forecasting

By Administrator ~ March 25th, 2015

Hi,

 

Michael was supposed to write this week's essay, but as you see he did not. I was completely unprepared for this week's essay so you will certainly experience arnold's ramblings. Ordinarily it takes me about 20 hours to write Arnold's Ramblings, but this week I had only about two hours; so if the quality is off, blame Michael. There are a multitude of topics to discuss this week: Israel. Iran, Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz, and on and on. But since I am unprepared I cannot intelligently speak about any of them. But, of course you will say (as my wife is saying in the background) when did you become intelligent arnold? Well, of course maybe that is the problem. All of the issues in the world and no one is intelligent enough to deal with them, least of all arnold. So, rather than whine (and certainly consume wine) we should just let those who know what they are doing solve all of our problems.

 

The DJIA still looks to be rising to at least 19000, probably to 20000 before fall.

Gold does not look to be much higher; maybe $1280.

Oil is going lower. First to $40; then into the $30's.

The dollar has had its first significant fall, and should return to rising again for the next couple of years.

Interest rates have started to fall again, with the 10 year Treasury at about 1.9%.

Real estate pricing is clearly peaking where asking prices are rising between 10% and 20%. This will not end well.

The economy continues to look weak to me.

 

Arnold

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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