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The Truth About the Economy, Economic Forecasting

By Administrator ~ January 27th, 2015

Hi,

 

arnold is tired of all of the abuse he has been receiving in certain quarters about how the economy is soaring (arnold is negative) and that we are in the midst of an unprecedented boom and on and on. The durable goods orders decline by 3.7% coupled with the drop in retail sales for December, 2014 should clearly indicate that the economy is at the least slowing more likely precipitating a recession. There are continuing ominous indicators: McDonald's sales continue to fall; IBM sales down 13%; many of the Dow Jones Industrial Average companies are experiencing falling sales. arnold is told that these companies are all dinosaurs and that they are not reflective of our present economy. Ha? Yes, Apple had great sales and a few other companies are doing really well; but most are not (in terms of sales). Earnings are rising (on a per share basis) in many of the companies based upon share buybacks; which cause misleading results. The markets are rising primarily on the Federal Reserve actions. If interest rates were permitted to float (without the Federal Reserve's actions) rates would be much higher.

 

The DJIA probably will still rise to at least 19000; maybe close to 20000 before the markets have a serious fall.

Gold could still reach maybe $1400 before it too drops substantially.

Interest rates continue to fall and should bottom soon and there should be a rise followed by new lows.

The dollar continues to rise and should rise significantly for years to come.

Oil may still bounce back to $72 or so, or it may break below $40 first, we will have to see.

Real estate pricing is peaking or has peaked in most markets.

The economy is starting to run out of gas (see above).

 

Arnold

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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