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Poll Offers Insight into November Election, Economic Forecasting

By Administrator ~ July 22nd, 2014

Hi,

 

I've written many times here about the conflict between what issues Americans prioritize and what issues our government gives focus and attention, and last week Gallup gave us another update, but they also asked a fascinating companion question.

 

As far as what we, the public find most important, unsurprisingly it is "Immigration/Illegal aliens." The influx of children on the southern border has become a major news story. 17% said this was most important, up from 5% in June.

 

What I find much more interesting, however is how people responded to the question that followed - "Which political party do you think can do a better job of handling the problem you think is most important -- the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?" The results are very ominous for the Democrats:

 

July, 2014: Republicans and Democrats tied at 35% each, 29% replied "same/other/no opinion"

Sept. 2010: Republicans = 40%, Democrats = 38%, 22% other

Sept. 2006: Republicans = 34%, Democrats = 49%, 16% other

 

In September 2006, the Democrats were on the verge of taking back both houses of Congress. In September of 2010, the Republicans were about to retake the House. This November, it looks like the Republicans have a very good chance of gaining control of the Senate, based on the chart above.

 

Michael

 

And now, Economic Forecasting from arnold:

The DJIA may have peaked over 17000. It is difficult to say based upon its being up or down 100 or more points a day. It would seem appropriate at this point to step aside and wait and see if the Dow makes it to say 17600 or 18000 before maybe re-entering. Or you could just use close stop losses.

Gold still could make it to $1450 to $1550, but it looks less likely each day. I would definitely look at close stop losses.

Interest rates have been falling again, but otherwise are still in a tight range.

The dollar is still trading water and near the bottom of its trading range.

Oil is (miraculously) still above $100 the barrel. At some point we will trade below $100 and when we start to see $90, then gold should be headed down to the $60's.

Real estate pricing still looks to be topping or topped in virtually every market.

The economy appears to be icky (that's a new economic term).

 

Arnold

 

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